exponentially exponential

Jared Diamond likens humanities' global activity and related impact to a race in which two competing forces are accelerating exponentially.

The first force is the brute impact as population grows and consumption grows. Assuming there is a physical limit, the closer we get to that limit the more dramatic the effect of each increment of load on the system. Jared also talks (as do other complexity scientists) of non-symmetrical effects due to positive feedback; that is, no turning back from the tipping point.

The second force is our awareness and response to the change. It too accelerates exponentially. If it was just will-power alone we might consider the situation hopeless. But it is more than just will power; it is the cumulative and network effect of the information collection and processing which occurs when all minds turn to the same problem. Maybe it is enough?

The manhattan project is a primitive example. The technical expertise developed in the few short years of the project in response to a massive social threat are one of humanities wonders and horrors. Splitting the atom is truly a tipping point whether you are a star or a society.

And the manhattan project has further resonances too. As the world looks for ways to respond to an exponential threat, nuclear power is back on the agenda big time. Ironic that this tipping point should attract the product of another earlier one, and offer the same dilemma of creation and destruction once again, with exponential force. Again.