Wikileaks - the new 4th Estate

In the broader scheme of things, Assange’s circumstances are a product of a structural transformation of social and state information systems generally, which he has chosen to accelerate.

The press (the 4th Estate) arose when technology for mass information distribution became “cheap” but not cheap enough to be “free”, and its stability and pseudo-independence in the face of state power was possible due to the mediating effect of its customers, that is, businesses wishing to advertise. The constant tensions between state, business and people, were sufficient to create something like a Lagrange point in which an objective and truth seeking press could develop and mature. And with the costs of publishing still being non-trivial, it was only possible for a limited number of narratives to be supported, creating potential for strong societal consensus(es).

The problem is this stable point no longer exists, thanks to the gradual lowering of costs for mass information distribution. Initially the audience and consensus fragmented as traditional media proliferated its channels to market - but an inflection point was achieved with global rollout of broadband - at that point broad information distribution truly did become “free”.

Now the social information system is a “many to many” network rather than a “few to many” network, and the business case for the objective 4th Estate press corp has disappeared.

It is into this vacuum that Wikileaks has plunged, distributing sensitive state and business data as did its 4th estate progenitors, but without the privilege of carefully cultivated and organically evolved patronage; not from the state, which in the past would sometimes support investigation of business, and not from business which would sometimes provide support for investigation of the state. And so far, not much support from the public either. But it does appear that as people digest what’s at stake that this is starting to change.

What is very clear however is that there is very little chance that a new steady state for social information systems will be achieved again in the near or even medium future.